Last night's developments on American Idol - Nadia Turner getting the boot, Bo Bice in the bottom two - tells me one thing: nothing is sureball on this show. Any chance of people hinting at the possible rigged results should be thrown out the can for several reasons, the least of which is that Scott Savol continues to shock me by remaining in the running.
With the ouster of Nadia, it appears to be the contestants who seemed like shoo-ins at the beginning of the competition aren't necessarily shoo-ins after all, and those who were expected to be voted out get better every week.
As of this writing, for instance, only two singers - Constantine Maroulis and Carrie Underwood - have yet to taste Bottom Three status. Everyone else - Anwar Robinson, Anthony Federov, Vonzell Solomon, Bo, and Scott - has been in the Bottom Three at least once (Scott twice!), with Scott, Bo, and Anwar experiencing the nerve-wracking Bottom Two. This may or may not bode well for Connie and Carrie, but as shown by Nadia and Bo last night and Anwar three weeks ago, early favorites are not immune from being voted out this early in the game.
I agree with Randy that consistency is key, and with Simon that song selection is crucial (Paula is nothing more than a glorified cheerleader). Right now, the most consistently pleasing performances, arguably, of course, belong to Carrie (whose Love is a Battlefield was her most appalling in weeks) and Constantine, who has shown considerably improvement, culminating in a breathtaking take on Bohemian Rhapsody.
Next week, unless he turns in a remarkably stellar performance, I think Scott is next to go. It's a little too early to tell, but both Cathy and I think Bo said the stupidest things last night, and that is definitely going to affect his votes (you don't insult your fans by saying you did this whole thing for a bet! What's going on with these AI contestants? Mario then Bo? Hello, people spend money on you, be grateful!).
Barring show stopping performances, my latest fearless forecast is as follows: